It’s unfair to tarnish all retirees with that statement, some might be offering great advice. But I’d be a little more circumspect about advice from those retirees advocating for earlier retirement because of their recent success. Some of these well-meaning folk might be suffering from recency bias. What’s that?
Anyone retiring in the past 15 years, with big stock market exposure, has probably been pretty lucky. Or, as they might prefer to see it … they are brilliant investors! This is especially true if their portfolio was biased towards the US markets. S&P500 Index® funds have returned close to 14% annually. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 Index® has done even better.
I have to admit, some of them do look like investing geniuses!
Over the past decade & a half, it almost didn’t matter what strategy was employed. Just about any broad based American equity funds worked well. The growth investor did well & dividend investors did well. Investors who choose funds delivering huge yields via covered calls & partial leverage did well. They are all still doing well. Some of these retirees are mocking the old 4% Rule. As they sip frozen margaritas on a beach in the Caribbean! They are having a ball. And it’s hard to argue with success. But this might not apply to the next batch of retirees. And those with more limited finances need to be especially careful.
The 4% Rule is not a rule, it’s a rule of thumb. A guide only. But there are good reasons for its existence. Reasons that are at least broadly acknowledged by most. In a “normal” world, the safe withdrawal rate of 4% generally worked. In the “modern” world, it seems like you can haul out 12 or 13% every year & ride that gravy train all the way to the bank. Or the beach! That’s been the story for anyone retiring from 2010 onwards. The few blips we had along the way, like the one earlier this year, another in 2022, the 2020 downdraft for covid. They all repaired so quickly that nobody really noticed these as bad events. In fact, all those rapid blips did was reinforce the “buy the dip” philosophy. And, for those who didn’t panic, that has worked out very well.
But there will almost certainly come a time, where the dips will hurt a little more than these recent examples. There will be more enduring dips. And in such times, the 4% withdrawal rate may be more appropriate for managing retirement income risk. Ask anyone who retired in 2000. I’m not kidding, find an older retiree & ask. You probably won’t find them on social media! The experiences of more recent retirees is not how things always were. And while the good times are still rolling, they may not continue forever.
In case you can’t track down one of those older retirees, read this post on the Safe Withdrawal Rate in Retirement.
If you were planning on saving a million bucks before retiring, but you’ve only made it to half a million so far, pause a minute. Think very, very carefully about taking any advice that suggests you can retire immediately on your half-sized stash. Some recent retirees may think it’s okay to use 10% withdrawals nowadays. Or maybe they suggest that you can buy a bunch of funds yielding 10, 12, or even 15%, & go enjoy life sooner. This might not be good advice. Remember the old investing disclaimer: past performance is not indicative of future returns? In fact, it’s more likely going to be the opposite. After such an amazingly good run of returns, it’s far more likely that future returns will not be as good.
Look, I don’t know what the future holds. Maybe these enthusiastic retirees are right. But for anyone on the threshold of retirement, or for those younger retirees with a longer retirement timeline, caution is warranted. I’m sure I would enjoy spending a little more after a really good year of returns. And I’d probably do that again the following year, if there was another good year in the bank. But I would not start out a full retirement cycle of 20 or 30 years with the expectation that 10% a year is going to be the norm. While it’s not a commandment, I would treat that 4% Rule of Thumb with a little respect. I sure hope that we might still enjoy some good years of 5 or 6% spending. Who knows, maybe even a little more than that from time to time. Actually, let’s be honest here, I’m really hoping that 10% thing holds up for my retirement, from beginning to end! But I’m not taking that optimistic hope to the bank for the long haul. It’s probably not going to work as a good financial planning number!
If you can’t figure this all out on your own, please see a qualified financial planner & step through the process carefully with them. They will help you figure out how much you need to save to retire. And how much you might be able to spend during retirement. I know it’s expensive to work with a financial planner, but it might prove to be money well spent. Rather than finding out that you got it wrong half way through retirement.
If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.
Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.
The Wry Eye 