Tag finance

Declutter an Investment Portfolio

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
A tidy portfolio can deliver growth or income with less work!

Managing a bag of stocks & ETFs is difficult. The fund companies have come up with products that have the potential to take away much of this pain. The all-equity ETFs & the all-in-one asset allocation ETFs offer a complete portfolio, wrapped in a single ticker symbol. Of course, no matter how good these products are, there might be some emotional investing needs too. Investing is both mathematical and psychological, eh? So maybe a little tweaking is okay!

Owning an ETF like BMO’s ZEQT (or iShares XEQT, VEQT from Vanguard Canada, etc.) is probably a good core choice for many investors. An ETF like this is already globally diversified. It’s geographically weighted according to market size & importance. It includes what many consider to be a reasonable home country bias. It holds large, mid, & small cap companies. It’s a really big haystack that I think Jack Bogle would approve of. According to Nobel Prize winning economist, Harry Markowitz, diversification is the only free lunch in investing. These funds meet that bar too. And finally, it’s a simple approach that is a lot less work for a DIY investor.

Do you spend your time figuring out if you should be dumping some of the tech ETF, so you can buy more of the gold one? Or trying to figure out when you should be selling the US market off, in order to buy Europe & Asia? Are you trying to work out what to do with this week’s hot & cold stocks? Worried about sector ETFs that might be going in, or out, of favour? Surging or failing markets? It’s all quite stressful & time consuming, eh? Life is too short. Especially as we get older! An ageing brain needs some challenge. But not torture. The globally diversified funds have everything in there. Some stuff will go up, some will go down. These funds are diversified & that’s how they work. And there’s one other important point to simplicity: if there’s a chance that the investing manager of a couple might depart first, a decluttered portfolio might be greatly appreciated by the surviving partner. The simpler the investing solution in place, the better it’s likely to be.

Want bonds? Choose one of the all-in-one ETFs (ZGRO, XBAL, VCNS, etc.) with a bond allocation that matches your needs. These are very simple solutions for highly diversified, asset-allocated portfolios, & they come with built-in rebalancing. Some investors might prefer an all-equity ETF that is complemented by separate bond & cash-like ETFs. There are some good arguments for breaking out the bond & cash allocations. It’s a little extra work, but it may make sense for some.

Now different investors have different approaches, so it’s not just about growth & accumulation. Fortunately, there is often a simple solution for many of the other investing styles too. For example, an income investor that favours high yield funds can choose something like the EQCL ETF, from Global X Canada, for the equity portion of their portfolio. It’s very similar in asset mix to the all-equity configuration of ZEQT. But instead of focusing on growth, this fund uses covered calls & leverage to drive a far higher distribution. People are different. Some are happy to go for maximum growth & sell off shares for income. Others prefer that the fund company delivers a bigger income stream for them. Rather than selling shares, these people are more comfortable figuring out how much of the big distribution they need to reinvest, in order to sustain & grow that income stream. Some investors like to mix & match such strategies. There are those who use different strategies in different accounts, so one style will be used in the TFSA & another in the RRSP. If you are new to these income funds, note that there are some total return & tax characteristics that are different to the regular type. Take the time to learn before diving in. Though that suggestion applies to everything. And it should have previously applied to the messy portfolios we sometimes find ourselves with! LOL

BMO offers yet another approach with their T6 Series ETFs. These funds dole out a targeted 6% distribution with funds like ZGRO.T & ZBAL.T. Here the fund manager is delivering the extra income, primarily via return of capital, but without the investor having to manage the sale of shares. This is cool for those who think that the 4% Rule isn’t allowing them to spend as much as they’d like. But it’s not as biased towards the far higher distributions that come from some of the high yield funds. This is more of a middle ground for income seekers. Don’t assume that this 6% distribution is a given for an inflation beating income stream for a full retirement lifecycle, by the way. Read this post on the Safe Withdrawal Rate in Retirement on why that might not work all the time. Nonetheless, the T6 funds will take care of automatically delivering a higher monthly yield, based on the value of the underlying fund at the end of the previous year. You still need to pay attention to the variability of the income stream over time. There may be a need to reinvest a little extra when income goes up after a great year, for example. That might safeguard against an income drop if the markets go down the following year. If the fund is subject to successive down years, the income stream will decline too. No solution is perfect when we try to predict the future, eh? But the bottom line is that simpler solutions exist for most investing styles & strategies. And for varying levels of distributions. Regardless of the investing strategy that is preferred, it shouldn’t stop an investor exploring ways to tidy up a messy & confusing portfolio. Especially if it reduces stress, while improving visibility & returns. Decluttering can be both refreshing & potentially rewarding.

If you can’t get your head around having so few holdings, how about putting the BMO one (ZEQT) in the RRSP, the iShares one (XEQT) in the TFSA, & Vanguard’s (VEQT) in the non-registered. Each one of these is globally diversified. They own a little piece of everything traded on the public markets. These are all essentially identical. But I get it. I totally feel the need to spread it around the different fund companies myself! There is also something to be said for making the single ticker solutions the core of a portfolio. While leaving a smaller allocation available for some gambling on the side. Sorry, I meant some intelligent macro investing on the side to boost alpha! If you know you can do it well, or if you can afford the greater uncertainty of return for a small part of the portfolio, then it might be fun, no it’s still crazy, okay! 😜

One other consideration. If the current messy portfolio performance is seriously lagging that of a single ticker solution, ask why. There may be good reasons why. And good reasons to justify staying the course with existing investments. But if we can’t come up with good answers (that aren’t guesswork or wishful thinking!), then consider this … if a portfolio is consistently underperforming the single ticker ETFs by an amount that is significantly more than 1%, it might be better off in the hands of an advisor who only charges 1% to manage the portfolio. Even if all the advisor does is invest it all into ZEQT or VBAL & manage the financial planning & cashflows for the investor thereafter!

There is also one big caution with all this. Decluttering a portfolio isn’t like spring cleaning at home. Do NOT rush into selling a bunch of stuff without getting some professional tax & investing advice. A long-term holding in a non-registered account, for example, may have significant capital gains tax liability if sold off. It might bump income up to a higher tax bracket. It might generate income that exceeds an OAS clawback limit, & so on. There are many potential issues, so seeking professional help is often the best course. There can be other challenges with balancing different fund types across the different account types. If you don’t know how to manage all this, get some help. Even if you’re just not sure if you know enough to manage all this, get some help first!

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Beware of Advice from Recent Retirees!

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Gambling on Retirement!

It’s unfair to tarnish all retirees with that statement, some might be offering great advice. But I’d be a little more circumspect about advice from those retirees advocating for earlier retirement because of their recent success. Some of these well-meaning folk might be suffering from recency bias. What’s that?

Anyone retiring in the past 15 years, with big stock market exposure, has probably been pretty lucky. Or, as they might prefer to see it … they are brilliant investors! This is especially true if their portfolio was biased towards the US markets. S&P500 Index® funds have returned close to 14% annually. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 Index® has done even better.
I have to admit, some of them do look like investing geniuses!

Over the past decade & a half, it almost didn’t matter what strategy was employed. Just about any broad based American equity funds worked well. The growth investor did well & dividend investors did well. Investors who choose funds delivering huge yields via covered calls & partial leverage did well. They are all still doing well. Some of these retirees are mocking the old 4% Rule. As they sip frozen margaritas on a beach in the Caribbean! They are having a ball. And it’s hard to argue with success. But this might not apply to the next batch of retirees. And those with more limited finances need to be especially careful.

The 4% Rule is not a rule, it’s a rule of thumb. A guide only. But there are good reasons for its existence. Reasons that are at least broadly acknowledged by most. In a “normal” world, the safe withdrawal rate of 4% generally worked. In the “modern” world, it seems like you can haul out 12 or 13% every year & ride that gravy train all the way to the bank. Or the beach! That’s been the story for anyone retiring from 2010 onwards. The few blips we had along the way, like the one earlier this year, another in 2022, the 2020 downdraft for covid. They all repaired so quickly that nobody really noticed these as bad events. In fact, all those rapid blips did was reinforce the “buy the dip” philosophy. And, for those who didn’t panic, that has worked out very well.

But there will almost certainly come a time, where the dips will hurt a little more than these recent examples. There will be more enduring dips. And in such times, the 4% withdrawal rate may be more appropriate for managing retirement income risk. Ask anyone who retired in 2000. I’m not kidding, find an older retiree & ask. You probably won’t find them on social media! The experiences of more recent retirees is not how things always were. And while the good times are still rolling, they may not continue forever.
In case you can’t track down one of those older retirees, read this post on the Safe Withdrawal Rate in Retirement.

If you were planning on saving a million bucks before retiring, but you’ve only made it to half a million so far, pause a minute. Think very, very carefully about taking any advice that suggests you can retire immediately on your half-sized stash. Some recent retirees may think it’s okay to use 10% withdrawals nowadays. Or maybe they suggest that you can buy a bunch of funds yielding 10, 12, or even 15%, & go enjoy life sooner. This might not be good advice. Remember the old investing disclaimer: past performance is not indicative of future returns? In fact, it’s more likely going to be the opposite. After such an amazingly good run of returns, it’s far more likely that future returns will not be as good.

Look, I don’t know what the future holds. Maybe these enthusiastic retirees are right. But for anyone on the threshold of retirement, or for those younger retirees with a longer retirement timeline, caution is warranted. I’m sure I would enjoy spending a little more after a really good year of returns. And I’d probably do that again the following year, if there was another good year in the bank. But I would not start out a full retirement cycle of 20 or 30 years with the expectation that 10% a year is going to be the norm. While it’s not a commandment, I would treat that 4% Rule of Thumb with a little respect. I sure hope that we might still enjoy some good years of 5 or 6% spending. Who knows, maybe even a little more than that from time to time. Actually, let’s be honest here, I’m really hoping that 10% thing holds up for my retirement, from beginning to end! But I’m not taking that optimistic hope to the bank for the long haul. It’s probably not going to work as a good financial planning number!

If you can’t figure this all out on your own, please see a qualified financial planner & step through the process carefully with them. They will help you figure out how much you need to save to retire. And how much you might be able to spend during retirement. I know it’s expensive to work with a financial planner, but it might prove to be money well spent. Rather than finding out that you got it wrong half way through retirement.

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

DIY Investing or Work With a Financial Advisor?

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Good old-fashioned financial advice.
But at what price?

DIY investing can drive you a little crazy. Do you like the crazy? Are you enjoying the work that comes with portfolio management? Some of us do! But it gets a little more challenging when we need to withdraw money during retirement. And will a surviving spouse be able to carry on with the crazy portfolio in the event the “money manager” departs first? Are you a good DIY investor? Or would you do better with an advisor?

There is an easy way to figure out if you should consider paying a fee to have a professional manage your portfolio & the retirement cashflow stream for you.
And it’s this …

Compare your DIY portfolio performance against an equivalent ETF. We all need a “benchmark” to check our portfolio against. If you’re 100% in globally diversified stocks, for example, compare your portfolio performance to that of one of the XEQT, ZEQT, VEQT all-equity ETFs. If you’re in a 60/40 stock & fixed income mix, compare your DIY portfolio performance against XBAL, ZBAL, or VBAL. Are you buying a mix of Canadian & US large-cap stocks? Then compare that to an appropriately allocated portfolio of VFV & XIU ETFs. A portfolio filled with way too many stocks & ETFs might also be usefully compared against one of the all-in-ones. If your portfolio performance lags its benchmark by 1% or more, you might want to consider handing it over to a financial manager.

As an aside, since some of these all-in-one funds are so new, you may need to break them down into their constituent ETFs to usefully use them for benchmarking over longer time periods. The longer the history, the more useful the insights.

I’m using 1% here because many financial advisors charge an annual 1% of portfolio value as a fee for managing a portfolio. Is that fee worth it? Get the advisor’s performance history & compare that to an equivalent benchmark ETF too. Their recommended portfolio should only lag the return performance of those ETFs by the 1% fee. If they meet that requirement and if your self-managed portfolio was lagging by more than 1%, you could be getting better results by paying the advisor the 1% fee. As a bonus, you’ll have less work & an advisor who will tell you that everything will be okay when the markets are imploding. Hand-holding is included in their fee! For retirees, the advisor may also plan the income strategy & tax-efficiently manage the cashflow for you, across all accounts. You might even get some estate planning advice along the way. If you have a good advisor, they can deliver a lot of value. Even if they underperform the market average by the amount of the fee they charge.

Can you find an advisor that will consistently beat, after fees, the market or benchmark returns? I don’t know, but be sure to review their data supporting this opinion very carefully. And not necessarily against the benchmark provided by the advisor.

Unfortunately, it can be pretty challenging to tell if an advisor is any good. And those investors who are most challenged by DIY investing will also be challenged by the process of choosing a good advisor. We all like to believe we have the best doctor taking care of our health. In reality, most of them will be closer to average than exceptional. Fortunately, there are minimum standards & qualifications that we hope will ensure an adequate level of service from these professionals. The same is only variably true for financial advisors. Because the qualifications for calling yourself a financial advisor in Canada are variable. Some advisors are closer to being a product salesperson. And while some feel or profess a fiduciary responsibility, it is not a legal duty or obligation for many. They cannot just take your money & head off to a beach somewhere, but they may be putting their own, or their company’s, interests just slightly ahead of yours when it comes to investment choices. Even if only subconsciously.

Of course, a good salesperson will make you feel better about the relationship you are getting into. And that’s not a bad thing. But you also need an advisor who can at least deliver average market returns for a broadly diversified portfolio. Minus the fees. And you do need to know exactly how much you’re paying for whatever services & products are being recommended! There may be advisory fees and product fees, check carefully.

If you are a balanced 60/40 style investor, what would you think of paying an advisor to put all your money into ZBAL? Or maybe 60% into XEQT, with the other 40% into a couple of bond & HISA-type ETFs? We sometimes resent paying for simplicity. Advisors know this & are less likely to present you with such a simple portfolio solution. After all, if things are that simple, why would we need an advisor!
Yet, in DIY mode, we sometimes struggle to follow the simple path ourselves. Instead, we prefer to work hard creating a portfolio that underperforms!

Of course, that simple solution might not be the ideal path for everyone. There may well be good reasons for some investors to pursue a lower volatility strategy, a higher income strategy, or whatever. But it is still useful to compare the total return on our own portfolios against those of low-cost, market index ETFs.

Robo-advisors are trying to bridge the gap between the advisory space & DIY, typically for about a 0.5% fee premium, in addition to ETF fees. I love the idea but it feels like you’re paying the added fee for the robo to pick the same ETFs that are in the all-in-one ETFs. Like some human services, they can fancy it up with one or two more esoteric picks. So you feel like you’re getting something extra for your money. But you generally won’t get the more valuable hand-holding that comes with the more expensive advisory services. Maybe AI will help with this down the road. But AI has been around for a lot longer than current market noise suggests & it hasn’t happened yet. Some robo-services do include human phone support. That might develop & grow into something more valuable going forward.

Isn’t there scope for fee reduction on the human advisory side too? Or for a service with a far more rapidly declining tiered fee-structure for larger portfolios? Are there any low-cost advisors out there? Shouldn’t there be more advisors competing with the 0.5% fees of the robo-advisors. Simpler portfolio advice & management should come with lower fees, no? I’m okay with portfolios constructed with low cost index funds. For some investors, the greater value may be more in managing asset location (what ETF goes in which account) & retirement cashflow. Some advisors include financial planning, a valuable service too. But can it be done for a 0.5% fee? Or less?

I realise that someone else’s job always looks easier than it really is from the outside. But I think financial advisory (& real estate) fees are very expensive in Canada. Particularly for the cookie-cutter portfolios offered by some companies. I’m totally okay with the right cookie-cutter portfolio, I just don’t want to pay through the nose for it. High fees are an ignorance premium being levied on a population that didn’t get this kind of knowledge coming through our educational system. And our schools still don’t prepare kids for the digital environment that now makes it far easier for the DIY investor to learn things the hard way. Fees will likely drop over time, as education & AI combine to work at improving the competitive landscape. Though in traditional Canadian fashion, it’ll probably drag out for a long time yet. And some of us older folk might not live long enough to benefit! 🤪

Regardless of the path we choose, it’s worth occasionally benchmarking our portfolio performance against a low-cost, well-diversified, ETF portfolio. One that approximately matches our portfolio’s asset allocation. Benchmarking can provide insight on how decent a job we’re doing with our investing strategy. And if we’re not doing such a good job ourselves, it may be worth talking to a financial advisor. But if you still find the idea of paying an advisor distasteful, then you’d better figure out how to learn to do it better on your own. Or maybe just use the benchmark ETFs instead!

If you want to learn more about saving & investing from the ground up, I’d like to suggest that you check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.