Benchmark Your DIY Portfolio

Measuring Portfolio Performance

How does your portfolio stack up against a simple, globally diversified, broad market index portfolio? Does it matter? It might. Most of us, short of placing some lucky bets, are unlikely to beat the markets over the course of our decades-long investing lifetime. But that doesn’t stop us trying. And that can get messy. Do you know what’s in your basket? And how well it’s working? If you find yourself wondering about this every now & then, it might be worth checking. How do we do that?

Plug your portfolio details into one of the online tools that provide portfolio comparison features. I like the Backtest Portfolio feature in Portfolio Visualizer for this. Once your portfolio is loaded, compare its total return performance to one of the all-equity ETFs like ZEQT, VEQT, or XEQT. If the equity side of your portfolio is crushing the returns of these all-equity funds, well done. Do you know why? Is it luck or skill? Can it continue? If you think it can, keep doing what you’re doing & get ready to enjoy your retirement!

If things are not going that well, it might be worth exploring why not. Of course, some investors may deliberately choose a portfolio mix that lags index funds. Not that the goal is to lag, but other attributes (low volatility, increased cash flow, whatever) may be favoured over maximising total return. It also doesn’t matter if you have a growth, dividend, or income investing approach, benchmarking total return performance can still be enlightening. And useful. Sticking with any strategy, even one that lags, is a decision best made when we know the cost.

I’ve left out a bond or cash component. However, that’s easily added. Make sure it’s in the same ratio as in your own portfolio, for an apples-to-apples comparison. Or use one of the asset allocation ETFs, like XGRO, VBAL, ZCON, etc. as your benchmark. These are the all-equity ETFs with bond funds built in. Select one with a built-in bond percentage that matches your own portfolio. I prefer not to use an S&P 500 Index® fund as the benchmark, because it’s less geographically diversified than I prefer for my portfolio. For for those who invest only in the US market, it’s a valid choice.

Most of the comparison & performance tools will require a subscription if you want to take advantage of the full capabilities. But, despite the limits, the free access can still be very useful. For example, Portfolio Visualizer allows 15 holdings & 10 years of back testing under the free tier. While stock pickers will almost certainly be challenged here, most ETF investors are likely to have fewer holdings. But if you’ve got more, choose all the bigger ones & hopefully the top 15 holdings will make up the bulk of your portfolio value.

Another challenge with making comparisons is that the first of the all-equity ETFs only launched in 2019. That limits how far back we can look for direct comparison. But there are some tricks that we can employ. Like breaking down a fund into older constituent (or similar) ETFs. For example, we can use an all-equity ETF proxy made up of VUN (USA 45%), XIC (Canada 25%), XEF (International Developed 25%), & XEC (Emerging 5%). This gets us a comparison all the way back to September 2013. On the flip side, if your portfolio has a bunch of new funds, there won’t be much history to look at. And, in general, the shorter the timeline, the lower the value of the comparison.

This next proxy drifts further away from using a single all-equity ETF. A comparison portfolio of SPY (USA 45%), XIU (Canada 25%), & EFA (International 30%) is a rough approximation that allows benchmarking all the way back to September 2001. It would have been interesting to see the impact of the dot-com implosion in 2000, but EFA wasn’t old enough to catch that event. I guess we could use a 50:50 portfolio of SPY & XIU to get back to 2000. The problem with both these “created” benchmarks is that the funds are in different currencies. This further muddies the waters. Pretty significantly. That said, for rough comparisons, they look back about 25 years. But why are we bothering with all this history stuff anyway?

We all know that past performance does not predict what the future holds. But benchmarking against one of these all-equity ETFs, or against a proxy for longer timeline comparisons, can throw up some interesting insights. It’s good to know how an asset mix survives things like the dot-com meltdown & the great financial crisis. There is tremendous value in seeing how things worked while accumulating. And then how things can change, sometimes seriously, while decumulating in retirement. I know some people are shocked by the outcomes from these comparisons. If that’s you, I hope you are positively shocked. Because of how well your portfolio has performed. And if so, congratulations!

If you are negatively shocked, you might want to reconsider what you are invested in & why. If the equity portion of your portfolio is way behind the returns of the globally diversified fund, is that acceptable to you? Is your original investing hypothesis intact? Ah look, I’m trying to tiptoe around asking you if you know what you’re at here! And if you don’t, consider this …

Should an investor seriously trailing an ETF filled with globally diversified, total market index funds think about the potential for buying that ETF instead? Or maybe this investor should consider talking to an advisor. I know that is a heretical thing to say out loud amongst DIY investors. But if the results are likely to be better, after paying an advisor 1% to just buy the all-equity ETF for you, why would you not think about this? And if this advisor throws in some fancy financial planning, that’s an added bonus. Look, DIY investing is not a religion. And we didn’t take a vow. We don’t have to remain committed to underperformance. Particularly if we can’t figure out how to fix it on our own. Of course, it can be as challenging to choose a good advisor, as it is to build a good portfolio! Seems like there is no escaping the need to invest in learning when it comes to making enlightened decisions about our money.

I guess this is all a bit simplistic, eh? But if you’ve been doing your own thing for a bit, it can be insightful to benchmark your performance against a simple off-the-shelf portfolio, like the all-equity ETF we used for benchmarking. And it’s an EFT that some academics & professionals argue might be the best long term investment choice for many DIY investors anyway. Only you can decide what to do once you see the results of a benchmarking exercise. Just don’t jump from the frying pan into the fire!

There are other considerations, of course. Some favour lower volatility portfolios. Others treat & handle risk differently. Retirement cashflow or income can be a big influence on portfolio choices for those nearing retirement. Worries about sequence risk in early retirement can factor into portfolio selection. And on & on it goes. But, regardless of these many influences, measuring & comparing performance can provide insight. And the insight may help guide us towards better solutions going forward. And if you do decide to have a discovery chat with an advisor, why not benchmark the advisor’s proposed portfolio against one of the all-equity ETFs as part of that process. After going through all this, I’m now questioning my own portfolio. Think I’ll head off & do a little benchmarking of my own. Catch up with you later! 😜

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Getting Started with Investing

The Right Basket of Market Index Funds!

We needed to choose some wall & floor tiles when we bought our last new house. The builder worked with a local tile shop & we were sent there to make our selections. We spent several hours driving ourselves nuts. We were totally frustrated & depressed when we left. After three hours, the staff were relieved to see us go. And we still hadn’t chosen anything! Worse, we’d left the store in a mess. Tiles were spread across half the showroom floor. There were so many to choose from, we just couldn’t make up our minds. I called the store next morning & asked them to lay out about a dozen choices that were mainly black & charcoal. We went back & made our selections from the samples laid out. And we were on our way within ten minutes. Job done. Once we’d decided on a general colour theme, limiting the choices made it far easier to choose.

Investing can be a bit like that for new investors. There are too many choices. Should you invest in stocks or ETFs? For just about all beginning investors, the better choice is ETFs. But, on the Canadian exchange, I think there are more ETFs than stocks now. So which ETFs should you invest in? There are actively managed funds & those that passively track market indices or broad markets. Since, after fees, most professionals can’t beat broad market & index funds, most of the time, the correct answer for most of us is broad market or index funds. Now you are down to the black & charcoal tile scenario! All you’ve got left to do now is figure out which market funds to go with. Fortunately, the fund providers have made this easy for us these days. Not only have they reduced the selection of tiles we need to look at, they’ve put them all in one shopping cart for us.

Many fund providers in Canada offer a globally diversified basket of market index funds that cover the US, Canadian, developed, & emerging markets. The big three providers in Canada, Blackrock, BMO, & Vanguard, offer XEQT, ZEQT, & VEQT, respectively, for this very purpose. You still have to choose one. But the good news is that it doesn’t matter which one you choose, they’re virtually identical. If you want to feel better about it, choose one for your TFSA & a different one in your RRSP. Draw your choices out of a hat, if you like. You are now invested in broad market index funds across the globe. Make your initial investment in these funds & continue to add to them with every paycheque. Job done!

The online noise might suggest you do something differently. For example, the S&P 500® funds, like Vanguard’s VFV, have done phenomenally well for the past decade or more. The American market has crushed the competition. Investors are drawn towards whatever is doing well. That drives the price up. To be fair, there are worse things you could do than get into the US market. AI has a lot of allure these days, for example. However, it is worth remembering the lessons of history. If you’d invested in an S&P 500® fund back in 2000, you’d find yourself with about the same amount in your portfolio after ten years. Yes, today’s hot index created no wealth for a full decade back then. While the Canadian index about doubled over that same period. The Japanese market tumbled from its all time high in 1989. It took 34 years to get back to that high. Even “good” broad market indices can sometimes hurt if you take a narrow focus. Especially over shorter timelines. These global equity funds have all the markets. Including an overweight to the American market. You’re not missing out on what the American market offers, you are just diversifying more. The American market may continue to outperform. But that is still a narrow bet, with an uncertain outcome. Warren Buffett has the confidence & skill to go in harder on more winners than losers. And he loves the American market. But he tends to think in far longer investing timelines than the rest of us. These equity funds are globally diversifed. Diversification is considered the only free lunch in the investing world. And this global approach is a good investing appetiser for a novice investor.

Look, you might not shoot the lights out with one of the above funds. Or at least, not quickly. But you might have a decent chance of growing your wealth over time. Start out this way until you learn more. And when you learn more, you might even decide this is still the best approach for you. Trying to pick the winners, either stocks or narrowly focused ETFs, or trying to pick next year’s winning market, depends more on luck. And good luck with that!

If you invest in one of these funds, & if you continue to add to your investment with a little piece of every paycheque, you’re still not out of the woods. Because your investment will tumble anyway. It’ll go down 5% regularly, but it can also crash 10 or 20%, from time to time. Maybe even 50% or more on rare occasions. What will you do when that happens? What you should do is keep on investing your regular contributions. Buying more of the good stuff when it’s on sale will help grow your long-term wealth even more. Those periodic tumbles are a natural part of the process. Investing is a long game. If you are 30 today, you have 35 years to go to retirement at 65. You might have another 30 years of retirement to get through. That’s a 65 year investing timeline. Historically, the longer the investing timeline, the lower the risk of loss. But the risk of volatility is always with us on the journey. And it’s tough to weather short-term volatility. That’ll be one of the most challenging lessons to learn along the way. While past performance has no bearing on what the future might hold, it’s all we’ve got to go on. Markets have always recovered & gone on to new highs. And if we ever reach a point where global markets fail to grow over time, we’ll have a whole other set of problems that our investments likely won’t fix. Instead of an emergency fund, we’ll need a farm in the wilderness!

Investing is tough, but these globally diversified funds make it easier to get started. And for young investors, getting started early is important. The best education comes from having something invested. And with these funds, you won’t be paralysed trying to choose something from everything available. Because you’ll have a little bit of everything in your shopping cart.

The tiles turned out great, btw!

If you want to learn more about saving & investing from the ground up, I’d like to suggest that you check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money

Investing for Retirement – Canada vs USA

Beavering away to make money!

This isn’t quite hockey but, regardless of the sport, we like to beat our neighbours to the south on the field of battle! When it comes to investing, it’s tough to beat the national teams of either country. And low-cost index funds for both the US & Canadian markets are a bit like the national investing teams. The outstanding performance of the American S&P 500® index in recent years has been impressive. Recency bias might suggest we stick with the winner. However, there are no guarantees that it will work the same way going forward. At least not for the potentially shorter timeframe that some retirees might need it to. People loved this American index in the 90s too. In January 1994, if you had invested a million dollars in SPY (the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust from State Street Global Advisors), with all distributions reinvested, it would have turned into more than $3.6 million by August of 2000. That’s pretty astounding growth, eh? Who wouldn’t want a piece of that action!

Imagine Andy retiring in January 2000. He’s got a million dollars to invest for retirement &, based on its recent performance, he sticks it all into SPY. His sister, Anita, prefers to stick with Canada & she puts a million into XIU, the iShares® S&P/TSX 60 Index® ETF. They both have some government pension income but they need their investment portfolio to provide an additional $40k a year for a comfortable retirement. That’s conveniently aligned with the withdrawal rate of Bill Bengen’s 4% Rule. This rule is more a guideline, but the idea is to plan on the money lasting ’til Andy & Anita move on from this earth. While $40k is 4% of the portfolio in the first year, they both want to increase that income every year by just enough to keep pace with inflation. In addition, rather than run the portfolio down to zero, they would both prefer to leave a little something for their heirs. With both siblings retiring at the start of the new millennium, let’s see how that plays out.

Fortunately, both portfolios have survived up to today & they are both enjoying their golden years. More importantly, they were both able to withdraw an increasing amount each year, in line with inflation. Most recently, they were both able to withdraw almost $73k for living expenses in 2023. The strategy worked for both funds. Today, the value of Andy’s American portfolio is a hair under $326k. While Anita’s Canadian portfolio is worth a little over $1.5 million. Andy’s portfolio showed a money weighted rate of return of about 3.34%. Anita’s was 6.06%. You can get some further insight on MWRR (Money Weighted Rate of Return) here. As a side note on the potential benefits of diversification, a portfolio of 50% allocated to each of these index funds, & rebalanced annually, would have a portfolio value just short of $1.1 million today.
But the end result is interesting, eh! Who’d have thought that the less diversified, less growth oriented, Canadian market fund would have outperformed one of the best indices on the planet?

That’s just one snapshot in time, however, & it included SPY taking a bigger hit when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. And it took another huge hit with the financial crisis that occurred around 2008. That’s a great example of the sequence of returns risk that retirees worry about. If the first few years of retirement are bad, the longer term outlook might not be as rosy. At least not for the kids hoping for a big inheritance!

Things can look different with even a short change in the timeline though. If the guys had invested their million dollars at the start of 2002, for example, Andy’s portfolio value would be worth $2.3 million today. While Anita’s would be at $2.46 million. The 50/50 portfolio would be just over $2.5 million. Just missing the worst of the dot-com bubble bursting made a big difference to the relative performance of SPY over this slightly later timeline. Missing the dot-com crash made a huge difference for the American fund.

For this final example of a traditional balanced portfolio, I used a 40% allocation to FBNDX, the Fidelity® Investment Grade Bond Fund, as this is one of the older bonds funds available for comparison. The remaining 60% was equally divided between SPY & XIU. The annual income remained the same for all three since January 2000, & the balanced portfolio is worth just over $1.2 million today. That compares to the $326k for SPY & the $1.5 million for XIU that we looked at previously. If we look at the 2002 start date, the resulting values are $1.7 million for the 60/40 portfolio, $2.3 million for SPY, & $2.46 million for XIU. The bonds helped when things went off the rails for SPY, but the bond allocation hurt the long term returns once we got past the dot-com bubble bursting.

That’s all just history though. And it’s difficult to interpret what’s going on today in light of that history. Is the American index overvalued? Maybe, but that doesn’t mean it can’t go up more. And there may, or may not, be another lost decade in sight for the American index during our retirement years. Will the Canadian index continue to do it’s boring trudge upward? Possibly. But that’s not guaranteed either. They could both continue to go up. Or down. Some crazy event might impact one or both markets in the future. Would adding some developed & emerging market diversity help? Again, possibly, but there are no guarantees. Despite bonds taking a dive at the same time as the markets in 2022, is there a place for bonds in a portfolio? I think there is. Does a cash position make sense with today’s higher interest rates? Again, I think it probably does. Particularly for those going into retirement. But in what proportion is anyone’s guess & the allocation may be more appropriately decided on based on individual risk tolerance. There are studies that suggest that stocks are less risky than bonds over the long haul. But if the long haul data is looking at a 50 or 100 year time period, that may not help a retiree with a 20 or 25 year retirement span. Especially if a major event hurts market returns during the early decumulation years.

With investing there are always more questions than answers. And the answers will be different for each of us. There are a wide range of solutions offered to help with such problems these days. There are relatively low-cost, all-in-one, asset allocation ETFs now, for example. These are ETFs consisting of globally diversified equities, combined with a weighted allocation to bonds, based on the investor’s risk tolerance. But it’s also possible to make a case for buying such funds individually, rather than in the all-in-one basket. Some retirees prefer income generating assets. Other prefer to leave it all in the hands of a professional money manager. There is no one way to do this. And the vagaries of time and the markets will always produce different results over different timelines.

I wish there was one right answer to this question. But the purpose of this post is more about using the lessons of history to counter the influence of recency bias. While betting big on the currently successful US index may pay off, doing that has delivered some hurt in the past. In other words, if you can tolerate the potential pain, you may achieve the gain you want. Though you may have to live longer to appreciate the results! Asset allocation & diversification can be of value in mitigating those effects. For better or worse. A younger investor with the right risk tolerance may be in a position to take on more risk. Older investors, maybe not so much.

If you want to learn more about all this from the ground up, I’d like to suggest that you check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & educational purposes only. Data may not be accurate, check the current & historical data carefully at each fund’s website. Opinions are my own, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.


Covered Call & Leveraged ETFs

The Ballast & Boost of Covered Calls & Leverage!

It’s generally accepted that it’s tough to beat the performance of low-cost, index-tracking ETFs. After fees, most actively managed professional funds don’t beat the indices over the long haul. While we can get lucky from time to time, most DIY investors can’t beat the indices either. We can however, have our heads turned by an attractive income stream. High yield ETFs have found new life since the covid lockdown. The whole work from home thing had many of us wanting to carry on working from home forever. If we could figure out how to get our investment portfolios paying as much as our day job, we could call it quits & be totally done with working for a living, eh?

Traditionally, you could build an income stream with a portfolio of dividend stocks or with some dividend yielding ETFs. Covered call writing can boost the distribution of an ETF beyond the dividends of the holdings. For investors who need an income stream, it’s an attractive proposition. You get a bigger income stream, without the hassle of selling shares for income. And you might not have to worry about selling shares in a down market. The negative thing about it is that you often lop off some of the upside with a covered call strategy. Selling a call means that you’ve made a few extra bucks, but you now have a contract to sell your shares at an agreed price. If the stock goes beyond that strike price, your shares are called away & the option buyer gets to buy them at a lower price than they are then worth. You’ve lost some of the upside. In general, these covered call ETFs will underperform an ETF that just holds the same stocks for growth. But so long as the underlying value of the covered call portfolio continues to grow, some people are okay with that. Instead of paying a financial advisor to give you a monthly cheque, you’re just letting the ETF manager use some of the upside to pay for the service. Some think that a covered call ETF will protect them when the market drops. That’s often not true. Other than the extra option premium we get, these ETFs can crash every bit as far & as fast as a regular ETF holding the same stocks. In general, covered call ETFs are more likely to underperform over the long haul. Though some are better than others, so you do need to compare before taking the plunge.

Fund managers are good business people. They know a good opportunity when they see it. They watched the enthusiasm for covered call ETFs growing & they realised that they could make it more appealing with the even bigger income stream that is available through the use of leverage. Leverage is borrowing money to invest in more shares. While borrowing cash for stocks can be an intimidating proposition for an individual, it’s a lot easier if the fund manager does all that for you inside the ETF. You can now find many ETFs advertising the enhanced yield that comes from using modest leverage. Those are marketing words with a lot of allure. Who doesn’t want “enhanced” yield? And nobody should fear “modest” leverage, right? You can see the appeal of the marketing message, eh?

But how well does this combined approach work?

The covered call bit is pretty straightforward, but let’s look at the effects of leverage. Since many of the new funds are too new to have any worthwhile history to examine, let’s start with a Canadian index fund instead. Canadians love Blackrock’s iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF, XIU. If you invested $10k in XIU back at the start of January 2000, with all dividends reinvested, you’d be sitting of a portfolio worth $47,757.00 today. If Grandma had loaned you enough money, at a zero percent interest rate, to apply a 25% leverage ratio to your investment, you would have $65,269.00 today.
Oh yeah, baby! Gotta love that leverage thing, eh!

Now what if Grandma had offered to loan you the leverage money at a 7.2% interest rate? Would you have taken her up on it?

If you had, your portfolio would be worth only $42,487.00 today. That’s a lower return than just investing in XIU without leverage. I think Grandma suckered you! I cheated a bit here to make a point. That 7.2% is the current prime lending rate. Interest rates were lower for much of that time & you’d have fared better with lower cost leverage. But if you were to get your own leverage by applying margin within your brokerage account, you might pay even more today. Check the margin rates at your brokerage. Fund & ETF managers can get better rates than we can, of course, but their fund returns will be negatively impacted by higher interest rates too. It all adds to the costs involved with managing these funds. These numbers won’t be on the front page of the ETF brochure. You’ll often have to dig into the multi-page downloadable documents (prospectus & financial statements) to see what these costs are. You’ll also find the TER (Trading Expense Ratio) here. I know, I know, I hate that small print stuff too. But once you dig, & with today’s higher rates, it’s not difficult to find a fund like this with a real total expense ratio of 2% or more. Let’s be real, the size of the fee doesn’t matter if the performance is good enough to pay for it. But if it’s not, we might do better with an advisor charging 1% to put us into low cost index funds & letting them do all the work to make sure we have an income stream every month. I’ve taken some liberties with this simple example here, but what’s the takeaway?

Going into one of these ETFs can be a bit like putting a donkey into a horse race. Generally, the low-cost index funds are the race horses. Active management adds more cost & doesn’t always add more return. Adding a covered call strategy is like putting bricks on the back of the donkey. They slow our ass down! Adding leverage is like using helium balloons to compensate for the drag of the load of bricks. How well a fund manager balances the bricks & the balloons over time will determine the fate of the investment. As will the fees charged for doing all that work. Interest rates have an impact too. The value of leverage goes down when interest rates go up. And leverage increases volatility. When the underlying investment goes up, leverage will make it go up further. When it goes down, leverage makes it go down further. The investor’s ability to handle that volatility is important too. It’s no surprise that leverage works best with assets that show consistent growth in a low interest rate environment. Check the history of total return when comparing one of these high yielding ETFs against a simple equity ETF. New funds lack history & it’s nice to see if a fund has proven itself over time. And during different market conditions. While past performance does not predict future results, it’s always worth taking a look at past performance before you place a bet with your retirement money.

Doing this comparison is even more critical if all the distributions are being pulled out for living expenses. A fund that consistently declines in asset value, as distributions are removed, is far more likely to provide a declining income stream over time. Try out the tools at Portfolio Visualizer for these comparisons. It gives a great snapshot of performance differences between funds. And it can show the history of the income stream. A declining income stream over time might not work well for an early retiree with a long time horizon.

While index investing is often recommended for investors with a long time horizon, there is an undeniable attraction to a nice income stream at any age & stage of the investing journey. But, starting out, be a little careful about how much of your portfolio is allocated to high-yield funds. Having great underlying holdings isn’t always enough. That does not mean that these funds don’t have a place in some portfolios. Just be careful with your choices!

There is another post on Canadian Banks for Dividend or Covered Call Income? if you want to read more on a comparison of the covered call approach.

If you want to learn more about all this from the ground up, I’d like to suggest that you check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & educational purposes only. Opinions are my own, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Investing is Like Shopping

Ever been in a lineup at the grocery store & switched to another line because it’s moving faster? Then the shopper ahead of you has their credit card declined! Most of us have done it, eh? And it’s a total crapshoot as to whether we win or lose. That makes it gambling. But it’s a gamble with little cost if we lose. And the elation of the occasional win makes it worthwhile. Many investors do the same thing, swapping stocks & funds based on which one is doing better recently. But when it comes to investing, we don’t always get to see the results right away. The reality is that reduced returns are more likely with this kind of behaviour. And this can have a negative impact on our financial well-being over the long haul.

There are few, if any, guarantees when it comes to investing. But chasing today’s hot stocks, sectors, ETFs, or markets usually results in underperformance. Today a growth strategy is the winner, next month it might be value, then it’s the turn of small caps, or emerging markets, & so on. But for most us, chasing what’s hot today usually doesn’t work that well.

For many DIY investors, a single, well-diversified fund or ETF is probably a better choice for the core of an investment portfolio. It might serve most of us well over a lifetime of investing. Buy that one fund & you buy everything at once. A young investor with an appropriate risk profile might go with one of the all equity funds like XEQT, VEQT, or ZEQT. An older or more risk-averse investor might choose one of the all-in-one funds that hold a bond allocation. The VGRO, XBAL, or ZCON (CNS) type funds from one of the big providers in Canada fit the bill here. Is one fund enough? These equity funds hold somewhere around 10,000 companies, from across the globe. Yes, that’s enough.

But, but, but … the S&P 500 Index has clobbered these funds recently. And the Nasdaq 100 Index has done even better. The American indices have outperformed most other county indices over long periods of time. So why might you do that boring global diversification thing? You do it because nobody knows what happens next. If we were having this conversation at the end of 1999 & you went all in on the S&P 500 Index, you could have turned $100k into about $104k by the end of 2010. A lousy compound annual growth rate of 0.35%. And that’s with all dividends & distributions reinvested along the way. Eventually it all came good & this index went on to ever greater highs. But would you have stayed invested for 11 years while the index did nothing? Meanwhile, if you put that same $100k in XIU, the iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF, it would have grown to over $200k during that same period. Over that decade or so, the Canadian market trounced the American market. Had you gone all in on the Nasdaq back then, your $100k would be worth less than $62k by the end of 2010. This usually hot index went down. A lot. Could that happen again? I don’t know, do you? Do you feel comfortable going all in on the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq now? How about going all in on that hot stock that your buddy made a killing with?

Even younger investors might want to give the bond component a look, by the way. Yes, I know bonds are boring, old-person investments. And bonds got walloped in 2022, so who needs them, eh? But look at it from another perspective. The oldest bond ETF in Canada is XBB, the iShares Core Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF. It launched in 2000 so we’ll use the data from January 2001 to the end of 2010 for comparison. While the American indices languished, XIU turned $100k into more than $179k over this 10 year period. While this boring bond fund turned $100k into almost $176k. A boring bond fund almost matched the performance of the Canadian index & it dramatically outperformed the American indices during this decade. A bond allocation provides further diversification & this is another example of what diversification is all about. You probably won’t make a killing betting on all the horses in the race, but it might help you keep the shirt on your back!

It all boils down to this … nobody can tell the future. Nobody knows what happens next. And, when it comes to investing, the less you know the broader you go. When you don’t know, diversification can help moderate the effects of crazy fluctuations in one regional market or another. While a series of catastrophic events could drag down all markets globally, there’s a decent chance that some regional markets will hold up better than others. That doesn’t mean that a globally diversified portfolio, even one with a bond allocation, won’t go down, it will. But unless you know something that nobody else does, or unless you get lucky, you might do better by covering more of the bases. These globally diversified & all-in-one ETFs do that.

Now if you really want to play with something different, it might be fun to allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to one of the hot funds. Or even to whatever stocks you think are part of the next big thing. You may even win big with this allocation & then you’ll frown at the pedestrian performance of your globally diversified ETF. But the thing to remember is this: portfolio performance is measured over decades, not over mere months or even years. The results of your choices might not be apparent for 10, 20, or even more years. The caution in this tale is to be wary of allowing short term or recent performance having too big an influence on your longer term decisions. After due consideration, you may still choose to focus more on the American indices. Nothing wrong with that. But do it with your eyes open. And with an appreciation for how things might work over longer time horizons. Investing really isn’t like shopping, it’s a long game.

If you want to learn more about all this, & how to build a portfolio that might suit your needs better, read Double Double Your Money.

Happy Canada Day! 🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & educational purposes only. Opinions are my own, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.