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CIBC serving CAKE!

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Have your CAKE & eat it!

What is going on at the CIBC? I thought it was an unassuming member of the Canadian Big Banks club. They just quietly & profitably do their thing. Mostly in Canada. And without too much fuss.
Recently, however, they started hanging out with the guys at Avantis & now they’re doing crazy things together. Crazy good things, I think. And in true traditional old style banking fashion, they don’t seem to shout about it from the rooftops!

Earlier this year, the new line of CIBC Avantis ETFs were launched. This is one of the more exciting ETF product lines to hit the market in ages. The headline EFT of this suite is CAGE, an all equity fund with a global allocation similar to ETFs like ZEQT, XEQT, & others. Avantis is a fund company that focuses on building factor-tilted funds in the US. Canadian DIY investors had access to very few funds like this on the Canadian exchange. With this new CIBC Avantis relationship, we now have a full range to choose from. All trading here. All in Canadian dollars. Including some unique & very useful Canadian variants. CAGE, for example, has the Canadian home country bias typical of the standard Canadian all-equity type ETFs, but with the factor tilt built in.
CAGE was launched on March 18th this year & it’s already gathered over $900m in assets, in less than 6 months. Looks like there was some pent up demand for factor-tilted products, eh?

We’ll look at factor tilting another day but today, I wanted to talk about another ETF from this partnership. Last week, CIBC launched another new CIBC Avantis ETF, called CAKE.
Are you kidding me? CAKE!!!
What a great ticker! Yeah, I know there’s another one in the US, but this is Canada, eh!
CAKE is a factor-tilted take on the all-in-one balanced ETFs that typically have a 40% bond allocation. It’s built with the other CIBC Avantis factor-tilted equity ETFs launched earlier this year, but this one adds bonds. So it’s more like ZBAL, XBAL, etc. And the ticker is … CAKE!

Who named this ETF? This is just way more fun than we’re used to from our Big Banks!
What an opportunity for the marketing folk to go completely nuts, eh?

But maybe they won’t.
CAGE didn’t get much of a marketing push that I saw & look what’s happening with that. Maybe sitting back & letting us talk about it online will work for CAKE too. I know I’ll be buying a few shares of CAKE so that I can use the dividends to buy the other kind of cake.
I can’t help it, I just want to be able to say that I can have my CAKE & eat it too! LOL
Sorry!

Two other ETFs were launched the same day, including CAGR. Another fantastic ticker, I can’t believe no one had taken that one already. This is similar to the *GRO ETFs, with a 20% bond allocation. But with the factor tilt thing on the equity components. The letters may mean something slightly different here, but it’s still cool. And lastly, there’s CAGX, a globally diversified all-equity solution, but without the heavy home country bias. While it’s a bit like XAW & VXC, unlike those funds, it doesn’t totally X-out the Canadian market. Instead, it retains the small global market weight allocation of 3%. Do I feel a little more affinity for it because of that? I think I kinda do. Is that a clever marketing thing? 😉

This is good stuff all round by the CIBC. Fun & eminently practical at the same time. It will be interesting to see how these factor tilted funds compare to the broad market index type over time. While checking out the CIBC Avantis range of ETFs, I took a quick look at the more than 180 ETFs that now trade commission-free on the CIBC brokerage platform, Investor’s Edge. There are a few interesting choices in there. The money market ETF (CCAD), for example, seems to have a few basis points of advantage over some others out there. Ever since they started that CDR thing a few years back, CIBC is quietly doing things that might create a little extra flexibility for some investors. I hope they continue to surprise.

As usual, nothing here is a recommendation.
But what do you think of the factor strategies employed by these ETFs?

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Old People Need Bonds

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Defensive Retirement Assets

Some say that a 100% equity portfolio can take us all the way through our investing lives.
Is that so?
Maybe.
But it might not be for everyone. And retirement can be different.

This exercise looks at why bonds might matter to a retiree. Using some older ETFs to create portfolios vaguely similar to the modern all-in-one types, we can make the comparisons from further back. Holdings & allocations are in the table below. There are more mixed currencies than metaphors here, but it’ll do for this simple comparison.

ETF TickerAll-Equity60/40
SPY (US)4527
XIU (Can)3018
EFA (Int’l)2515
XBB (Bond)030
XSB (Bond)010

Investing $100k in each of these portfolios at the start of 2002 would see the 60/40 grow to about $570k today. Not too shabby, eh? The all-equity portfolio would have grown to almost $860k. A nearly $300k beat. Bonds hurt the 60/40 portfolio’s returns over that timeline. But that’s only the accumulation story.

Now imagine two investors retiring at the start of 2002. They heard that markets only go up, so they wanted to withdraw more than the 4% Rule suggests! They also wanted to “melt down” their registered retirement accounts. These old guys might have been ahead of their time for back then, right?
They started with an 8% withdrawal rate, taking out $8k in the first year. And increased withdrawals every year, roughly in line with inflation.
How did that all work out?

The all-equity retiree ran out of money in 2018. The 60/40 portfolio chugged along for another year. Not huge, but still a win for the portfolio with bonds. In 2009, during the great financial crisis, the 29% portfolio drawdown gave our 60/40 retiree palpitations. But our all-equity guy had supraventricular tachycardia watching his portfolio plummet 50%. Us old people know some fancy medical terms like that! In addition to the 60/40 portfolio surviving longer, it was less gut-wrenching during the bad times.

Let’s look at another retirement scenario. To get back to 2000, we’ll dump the international fund & the Canadian bond funds. We’ll just ignore the international component & replace the two Canadian bonds funds with one American bond fund. The American bond fund slightly underperforms the Canadian combo, but that just makes the comparison favour the all-equity portfolio a little more. The all-equity portfolio now has an allocation of 60% to US equity & 40% to Canadian. That translates to 36% & 24% respectively in the balanced portfolio, with the remaining 40% going to bonds. Now we can look at the impact of the dot-com crash. That was some heavy duty sequence of return risk for anyone retiring back then.

And the result for our 2000 retirees was that …

The all-equity portfolio died in 2010. While the 60/40 carried on ’til 2013. For fun: a portfolio with an even bigger bond allocation of 80% would have survived to 2015. Looking at it another way: when the retiree with the all-equity portfolio went broke in 2010, the 60/40 guy still had almost $25k in his account. And the very conservative 20/80 retiree was looking at almost $47k. Bonds helped a lot here. As it happens, that was during a great era for bonds. It hasn’t been quite so good for bonds in recent years.

Despite today’s lower bond yields, there may still be value in the ability of bonds to tamp down portfolio volatility. That can matter to a retiree. Financially & emotionally. Despite how great the markets have been for the past several years, this exercise is also a reminder that stocks don’t only go up. Stocks are risky. Especially over the shorter timelines that make up retirement decumulation cycles.

Let’s look at one additional scenario that shows how equities can deliver in the good times. Though it muddies the waters still more, it’s important. Same portfolios as in the table above, but with investors retiring in 2010 this time. Both have been withdrawing exactly the same amount every year. The 60/40 retiree checks his portfolio balance today. It sits at just under $50k. Pretty good. However, the all-equity retiree now has a portfolio worth over $150k. Despite identical withdrawals, the all-equity portfolio has continued to grow in value over this timeline. The equity guy is probably having a chuckle at his buddy’s expense. Of course, the RRIF meltdown isn’t going so well for him. He might have to make bigger withdrawals & spend more going forward. How awful for him!
If you have to have a problem in retirement, this might be the one most of us would enjoy complaining about, eh?
As a side note, this period included 2022 where, unusually, bonds fell in concert with stocks. Sometimes, bonds can be risky too!

What does it all mean?

Who knows! There isn’t one solution fit for all investors. But if you go for coffee with the guys that retired in 2000 or 2002, they’ll tell you to include bonds in your portfolio. Spend time with the guys that retired in 2010 & you might find them doing a harder sell on the all-equity approach. We all have biases. These come from who we are & what we’ve lived through. Sometimes, they are shaped by the biases of the people we hang out with. Do you know what your biases are? Biases can be tempered by knowledge. Knowledge is usually a good thing. And while the past doesn’t predict the future, we can learn from it.

In retirement, we’re going into the final stretch of the investment lifecycle. And of our own time on earth. We don’t always have time to wait for a big market recovery. We no longer have the big earning power to make up for large losses either. Downturns can hurt a portfolio a lot more during the decumulation years. We need to assess the different risks of stock & bonds in light of those limitations. Along with our willingness, our ability, & our capability to tolerate those risks.

So how do we handle this? Too big a bond allocation might downgrade the quality of the retirement home we move to at the end. Under different market conditions, the right bond allocation might save us from homelessness. While some investors feel safer having more bond & cash-like funds in the retirement portfolio, they also worry that inflation will evaporate the value of these assets over time. There are other strategies that might help too. Like variable spending, investing for income, annuities, real estate, & so on. These approaches may provide some additional levers to help get us through the journey. But retirement planning is complex. And second guessing is a part of the annual review!

If you can ‘t shake off enough of the uncertainty, it may be worth spending some time & money with a qualified financial advisor or financial planner. A topic for another day!

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Diversification – Is One ETF Enough?

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Too many eggs or too many baskets?

Short of having a stock picking crystal ball, most investors agree that diversification is a positive thing for our portfolios. We have old sayings like “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” to remind ourselves of the value of spreading risk around. We generally think that more is better when it comes to being diversified. But that depends on how you look at things.

Considering only the equity portion of our portfolio, we have some fantastic solutions in Canada with globally diversified all-equity ETFs. BMO has ZEQT, RBC iShares offers XEQT, & Vanguard Canada manages VEQT. Other Canadian institutions, including TD, Mackenzie, Fidelity, etc., all have their versions or something similar. Global X & others offer income-focused covered call & leveraged variants, with similar global diversity. BMO created their T Series ETFs for income seekers who prefer to avoid covered call & leverage strategies. Do your due diligence on whichever of these strategies might work best for you, but they are all globally diverse solutions. And that’s the real message here.

Any one of these funds provides something close to the maximum market-weighted diversity obtainable in the global public markets. It just doesn’t feel like that when you stick all your money into one ETF. If you’ve switched from stock picking to index investing, going from 50 stock holdings to just one ETF, then one lonely ticker symbol in a portfolio does not look like diversification, does it? But it is. For many investors, it may be the optimal way to get diversification. These funds are holding ten thousand companies, give or take, from all around the world. And here’s the kicker: buying any ETF that is less diversified than these ETFs actually reduces the balance of market-weighted diversification!

If you buy an additional financial ETF, for example, you are overweighting banks & financial institutions in your portfolio, relative to their respective market weights. All the holdings in any additional ETF are already contained in, & appropriately weighted in, the all-equity ETF solutions. Same if you buy a tech ETF. Or an ETF that would add weight to a region, such as Canada, the US, or international. If you disagree with the weightings in the all-equity ETFs, either by sector or geography, then by all means rebalance the weights by buying additional ETFs. But adding an extra ticker symbol to your holding by buying your favourite Canadian bank ETF does not increase the diversification offered by these all-equity funds. It just overweights stocks that were already correctly weighted in the single ETF solution. Despite how scary it might look, one might be enough. Rather than being a single basket, it’s more a basket of baskets. With about the right number of eggs in each of those baskets.

That said, there may be other elements of diversification to consider.

It may make sense to diversify with ETFs from more than one provider. The global stock exposure is approximately the same across most of these funds, but that’s not the diversification angle here. Who knows what might happen down the road, maybe a data center goes off line for our favourite fund provider. If some unimaginable thing happens, & we’re all in on that company’s ETF, we might be stuck redeeming those funds. Even if only temporarily. However unlikely that possibility, there might be a justification for holding very similar funds from other providers too. Splitting holdings across ZEQT & VEQT, for example, might be a reasonable thing to do.

Or, depending on the use for various accounts, it might be useful to hold similar funds, but with different strategies, across different accounts. Young investors, or retirees planning a legacy, might use a vanilla all-equity fund in the TFSA account, for example. While retired investors with an income bias might prefer to hold higher yielding variants that employ covered calls & leverage in a RRIF account. Still others might prefer the T Series type, like ZEQT-T, for income. Maybe even some of both. But you get the idea: it’s a mix & match thing. But this is for diversification by investing style across accounts with different goals. It’s not significantly diluting or changing the balance of the global diversification offered by any of the market-weighted solutions.

So by all means, go buy something different for fun, function, or fund manager diversification.
Or by design, if you feel modifying sector or geographic allocations will suit your needs better.
But be aware of what you’re doing if you’re only doing it because you just can’t bear to look at one or two ticker symbols in each account.

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Santa Claus Rally & Predictions for 2026

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Seasons Greetings to All!

The big guy delivered some good days leading into the holiday. But even without the little Santa Claus rally at the end, 2025 was a great year for investors. Globally diversified investors were finally rewarded for investing outside the US markets. This time last year, who would have guessed that the Canadian market would have topped the performance charts?

Here’s what market performances around the world were like up to now in 2025 …

This chart is built by comparing popular broad market ETFs that trade in Toronto. All dividends & distributions are reinvested to maximise total return. The last column is one of the popular all-equity ETFs that are globally diversified. It hold chunks of all the other columns in this chart, with a serious overweight to the world’s biggest market, the US. And the Canadian market is also overweighted, especially compared to its size. Because we all love a bit of home country bias, eh! The US market has outperformed in recent years. Starting out, I would not have guessed that 2025 was going to be the year where it lagged. And it would have been an even bigger stretch to imagine that Canada was going to come out on top. As usual, the pundits & talking heads are all over which markets are going to do well next year. Is it possible they only get it right accidentally!?!

My prediction for 2026 is that I’ll probably be better off if I put any spare couch-cushion-cash I find into one of the all-in-one ETFs that matches my asset allocation goals. Of course, I am prone to thinking I know better from time to time. And while I can occasionally get lucky, I mostly screw up when doing my own stock, sector, or market picking! 🤪

Thank you for joining me here throughout the year, I guess we’re all done for 2025. And here’s hoping the world is a nicer, kinder place in 2026.
May whatever light that lights your way shine ever brighter this holiday & beyond!

Best wishes,

Paul

If you want to learn more about saving & investing, please check out Double Double Your Money, available at your local Amazon store.

Important – this is not investing, tax or legal advice, it is for entertainment & conversation-provoking purposes only. Data may not be accurate. Check the current & historical data carefully at any company’s or provider’s website, particularly where a specific product, stock or fund is mentioned. Opinions are my own & I regularly get things wrong, so do your own due diligence & seek professional advice before investing your money.

Investing is so Exciting, eh!

Paul - The Wry Eye Guy Leave a comment
Going to the Moon?

When I assumed control of my own portfolio during the pandemic, nobody told me how exciting it was going to be. Buying & selling stocks & ETFs, watching the numbers go up & down, checking out colourful little charts & graphs, it’s all great fun. Way more fun than getting fake coins for completing a crossword puzzle app on my phone. I must have missed my game time though, because I bought some crypto. Now I could carry on watching fake coins on an app, just like before. But without having all the pressure of figuring out which letters I needed to make a word. Crypto wasn’t that much fun though. I didn’t get the idea behind this game. So I sold them & bought these other stocks where you can win dividend coins. Every now & then, these coins just tumble in out of nowhere. Even when you have no idea what you’re doing. It’s great!

Investing is a fun game. I’m still learning & I don’t know all the rules yet. Is it better to own single stock warriors or little ETF armies? What does it mean when the numbers turn red? Am I trying to get the squiggly line to go up or down? Are we supposed to make mountain shapes with the lines? I think the overall objective of the game is to beat “the Market”. The Market is like the evil empire & if you beat the market, you get treasure.

That should be easy, no!

Why?

Because social media & 24 hour stock market channels provide an endless supply of expert advice now. And it’s free. What other game do you play that has it’s own TV channels? It’d be crazy not to take advantage of all that free wisdom, right? Though I must admit, they’re messing with my head a bit. One says buy this, the other says not. Next week, they both reverse what they said last week. Is this some clever gaming strategy? It takes a while to get used to a new game. To understand all the tricks & sly moves that get you ahead. But I have noticed that if you buy anything that a rich & famous person buys, you usually get a great result. Right now, I’m trying to figure out how to buy the right armour & weapons stocks before the famous guy does. That’s a good strategy, right?

It’s the same with all these games though. Kids learn much faster & play much better than us slightly older folk. Kids were getting rich buying these funny game company stocks. And that silly fake-money coin. While I was still trying to work out what to do with those dividend coins. I also didn’t know what bonds were. Was that like some kind of protective potion that you could drink when your stock warriors were under attack? Experts say older people should have a lot of bonds.

Anyway, I was too busy learning about how to attack the market with my stock icons, so I was late to the game buying a few bond ETFs. I know I should have spent more time looking into the powers of the bond potion but, so far, they blow. I’ll just park them in the corner for now & worry about them later. Though most of my stock icons are pretty boring too. All the exciting icons are with the high-flying gamers. This year however, they seem to be flying below my boring stocks. I’m guessing this is another strategy I haven’t figured out yet. Maybe they fly below to look for weak spots in the underbelly of my stodgy stocks? I might pick up a few of those high-flyers now. I don’t know what else to do with those dividend coins.

Back when I had advisors, the market would usually beat me. Except, sometimes, when I lost money. In years when I lost coins, they’d tell me that we (meaning the advisor & me) didn’t lose as much as the market. And that this was a very good thing. It was, I agreed. When the market was up, I didn’t think it was quite so good when the market beat “us”. But I learned that was normal & that we weren’t trying to beat the market. I’m good with that too. But I can’t believe I used to pay advisors to do all this fun stuff for me. They were having all the fun playing the game & I was paying them to play for me. It’s almost like paying someone to go out & have a nice dinner for you. And on you!

Now I have all the fun myself. I’m pretty sure I won’t beat the market either. But it costs me nothing extra to play now. And I can try to not lose as much as the market when things are down. Though I know I’ll miss those fireside consolation chats I had with my advisors when things sucked. Gaming solo can be lonely.

If I lose all my coins, I’m truly shagged. But I gotta say … so far … it’s been a whole lotta fun using a little money learning how to play the game.

Let’s see if I’m still enjoying the game as much by the time the next heroic bull emerges to battle the market.

Game on! 😜